FTZs: Avoiding The Crossfire
The events of the past month were an unprecedented one for trade. It seems like we’ve reported those words a lot recently, but last month also confirmed many of the reasons that companies that rely on a steady stream of imports should rely on the foreign-trade zone program.
Like the stock market, the staff here at the FTZine was optimistic that last month would be one of reduced trade tensions. Trade negotiations with China were expected to conclude, and the Chairman of the Senate Finance Committee laid out a path for passage of a new trade agreement with Mexico and Canada. The exact opposite occurred. Now importers are scrambling for ways to ameliorate the blow of new and rising tariffs on imports from China, Mexico, India, and Turkey.
Trade used to be a sidebar in Presidential contests, but now it has taken center stage, and more unexpected turns may yet be in the works as we get closer to the election. Companies already in the FTZ program can soften the blow of these abrupt changes, and many firms without prior reason to consider a zone may wish to re-evaluate and see if the program now makes sense for their business.
Top Story: Surprise Mexican Tariffs Impact Foreign-Trade Zones
The U.S. will impose a 5% tariff on all Mexican imports from June 10 — and duties of up to 25% will be added in the coming months if Mexico does not take action to “reduce or eliminate the number of illegal aliens” crossing into the U.S., the White House said last Thursday.
“Tariffs will be increased to 15 percent on August 1, 2019, to 20 percent on September 1, 2019, and to 25 percent on October 1, 2019,” it added. “Tariffs will permanently remain at the 25 percent level unless and until Mexico substantially stops the illegal inflow of aliens coming through its territory.” the White House said.
The Mexican government tried to defuse the new tension Friday, saying the two sides would meet in Washington this coming Wednesday for high-level talks.
While international trade policy may be an unfamiliar topic for many voters, the subject now sets up a clear contrast for the President with the Democratic Party's presidential front-runner, Joe Biden. The former vice president's support of the North American Free Trade Agreement and the Trans- Pacific Partnership separate the candidates, as President Trump has railed against both deals.
President Trump’s plan to slap new tariffs on Mexican imports, weeks after escalating his trade war with China, leaves the United States fighting a multi-front campaign that threatens more instability for manufacturers, consumers and the global economy. Foreign-trade zones are not a complete answer to rising import tariffs, but they may offer some relief for companies buffeted by the abrupt changes.
In one example of a company caught in the crossfire, FTZ user GoPro of San Mateo, Calif., last month announced it would move manufacturing of some of its cameras from China to Mexico, so that it could stop paying tariffs to import them to the United States — tariffs resulting from the U.S. trade war with China. Weeks later, GoPro faces new tariffs to import those goods from Mexico.
“A lot of companies feeling pressure to get out of China are looking at Mexico if they want to serve the U.S. market, Vietnam if they’re more focused on Asia,” said William Reinsch, a former Commerce Department trade official. The President’s action “scrambles all those plans,” he said.
As U.S. companies race to find tariff-free places to manufacture, so far few have reported returning production to the United States, despite the President’s stated aim of using trade policy to help bring jobs back home. Many are still seeking alternative locations overseas, where labor is cheaper and regulatory burdens are reduced. Perhaps for some of these companies the foreign-trade zone program can help bridge the cost differential with overseas production.
In a stunning reversal for US importers, U.S. Customs began collecting higher, 25% tariffs on many Chinese goods this weekend in an intensification of the trade war between the world’s two largest economies. The trade and stock markets around the world had expected a deal between the two countries to de-escalate tensions between the two countries, and possibly reduce eisting tariffs, not raise them.
President Trump imposed the 15% tariff increase on a $200B list of Chinese goods on May 10, but allowed a grace period for on-sea cargo that departed China before that date, keeping them at the prior, 10% duty rate.
USTR issued a Federal Register Notice setting a June 1 deadline for those goods to arrive in the United States. That deadline expired over the weekend, and FTZs must not only continue procedures in place for paying the extra duty, but also increase payments on their ‘List 3’ items from 10% to 25%.
The tariff increase affects a broad range of consumer goods, and intermediate components from China including internet modems and routers, printed circuit boards, furniture, vacuum cleaners and lighting products.
In retaliation, China began collecting higher tariffs on a $60 billion target list of U.S. goods. The tariffs apply additional 20% or 25% tariffs on more than half of the 5,140 U.S. products targeted. Beijing had previously imposed additional rates of 5% or 10% on the targeted goods.
China also announced it would establish a blacklist of “unreliable” foreign companies and organizations, effectively forcing companies around the world to choose whether they would side with Beijing or Washington.
The “unreliable entities list” would punish organizations and individuals that harm the interests of Chinese companies, Chinese state media reported, without detailing which companies will be named in the list or what the punishment will entail.
At a time when Western corporations have cut back executive travel to China after authorities detained two Canadians on national security grounds in December, the blacklist sent another shock wave through the business community.
Aside from the blacklist, China in recently days also escalated threats to stop selling the United States so-called rare earths — 17 elements with exotic names such as cerium, yttrium and lanthanum that are found in magnets, alloys and fuel cells and are used to make advanced missiles, smartphones and jet engines. Alternatives for sourcing these materials will be difficult to find as the majority of the world’s reserves are located within China.
Analysts said it could take years for the United States to ramp up rare-earths production, after its domestic industry practically disappeared in the 1990s. Roughly 80 percent of U.S. imports of the material come from China, according to the U.S. Geological Survey.
The People’s Daily, the Communist Party’s official news outlet, carried a stark warning for the United States on Wednesday in an editorial about rare earths: “Don’t say we didn’t warn you.”
The commentary surprised China experts because the People’s Daily, which often signals official positions with subtly codified language, uses that phrase sparingly: It famously appeared before China launched border attacks against India in 1962 and Vietnam in 1979.
No further trade talks between top Chinese and U.S. negotiators have been scheduled since the last round ended in a stalemate on May 10, the same day the President announced the higher tariffs on the so-called ‘List 3’ items.
The US has reached a deal to lift the special Section 232 tariffs on aluminum and steel from Canada and Mexico. A recent message from U.S. Customs outlined how foreign-trade zones are to handle the elimination of the additional payment on such imports.
The agreement calls for Canada and Mexico to establish stricter monitoring and enforcement guidelines to prevent steel from China from being shipped to the U.S. through the countries' territories.
The action removes an obstacle for congressional approval of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), which is proposed to replace NAFTA.
The leaders of the countries signed off on the USMCA earlier this year. However, Senate Finance Committee Chairman Chuck Grassley, (R-IA) said he would not approve it unless the President eliminated the steel and aluminum tariffs.
With Chairman Grassley’s concerns addressed, USTR Lighthizer sent a letter to congressional leaders last week to kick start the process of approving updates to the Free Trade Agreement.
According to a copy of a letter obtained by CNBC, Lighthizer submitted a draft of the so-called Statement of Administrative Action, which would allow the Trump Administration to send the proposed agreement to Congress within 30 days. The White House has said it wants to ratify USMCA this summer.
The Washington Post reported that Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau spoke with President Trump, and the leaders discussed the steel and aluminum tariffs, as well as the USMCA. While discussing the elimination of the tariffs, people familiar with the situation told the Post that U.S. officials attempted to get Canada and Mexico to adopt quotas on steel and aluminum shipments to the U.S., but the countries rejected that demand.
The Administration imposed the tariffs on steel and aluminum in March 2018 on major trade partners, including the European Union and Japan, citing the abundance of Chinese goods being sold in the U.S. and putting the country's businesses at risk. Steel and aluminum Section 232 tariffs on imports from Japan and the EU will remain in place.
FTZs Breathe Relief As Auto Tariffs Deferred
Last month President Trump announced that the administration will delay tariffs on the auto industry by up to six months as the US tries to reach trade agreements with the European Union and Japan.
The delay also forestalls any retaliatory moves by Europe or Japan as the two sides try to reach an agreement. The postponement is good news for FTZs that import autos and auto parts, as well as those zones that rely on auto exports for their production volume.
In a proclamation, President Trump said he directed USTR Robert Lighthizer to seek agreements to “address the threatened impairment” of national security from auto imports. The President could have chosen to move forward with tariffs during the talks.
The White House had to decide last month whether to slap duties on autos. Earlier in the year, the Commerce Department said the President could justify the move on national security grounds. By law, the administration can push back its decision by up to six months, if it is negotiating with trading partners.
EU Trade Commissioner Cecilia Malmstrom said in a statement that the trade bloc “is prepared to negotiate a limited trade agreement” including cars, but not so-called managed trade, in which the partners could set targets like quotas.
Malmstrom said EU officials will discuss the issue with Administration officials in Paris.
Levying the auto tariffs threatened to open new fronts in a global trade war. The EU has already prepared a list of American goods to target with tariffs if the US goes ahead with the car duties.
India and Turkey Trade Now Have FTZ Benefits
The US will end preferential trade status for India this week, President Trump confirmed amid a deepening disagreement over US exports.
India had been the largest beneficiary of the General System of Preferences (GSP), a program that allows goods from allied countries to enter the US duty-free.
For India, that status will end on Wednesday, which means that companies with import streams from India may now wish to consider the FTZ program for their newly-dutiable inputs. (more)
In March, the President announced that GSP preference would be revoked because India had failed to provide adequate access to its markets, but gave no end date.
This past Friday he said: "It is appropriate to terminate India's designation as a beneficiary developing country." Because GSP is a unilateral program of the United States, there are no requirements that US goods will be treated favorably by the beneficiary country, nor any guarantees of continued inclusion in the program.
India had said the move would have a "minimal economic impact", but it comes at a time lower growth and record unemployment in the country.
Until now, preferential trade treatment for India under GSP allowed $5.6B worth of imports to enter the US duty free.
In April, the US ended Turkey's preferential status under GSP, adding yet another country whose imports may now benefit from inclusion in the FTZ program.
The events of the past month were an unprecedented one for trade. It seems like we’ve reported those words a lot recently, but last month also confirmed many of the reasons that companies that rely on a steady stream of imports should rely on the foreign-trade zone program.
Like the stock market, the staff here at the FTZ’ine thought last month would be one of reduced trade tensions. Trade negotiations with China were expected to conclude, and the Chairman of the Senate Finance Committee laid out a path for passage of a new trade agreement with Mexico and Canada. The exact opposite occurred. Now importers are scrambling for ways to ameliorate the blow of new and rising tariffs on imports from China, Mexico, India, and Turkey.
Trade used to be a sidebar in Presidential contests, but now it has taken center stage, and more unexpected turns may yet be in the works. Companies already in the FTZ program can soften the blow of these abrupt changes, and those without reason to consider the program before should re-evaluate to see if the program now makes sense for their business.